It’s a mess…
One month into conference play, the nation’s toughest league is impossible to sort out. Here’s where I see things so far. If you would have it any different, I wouldn’t blame you.
#1 Houston
The Cougars have lost close on the road against Iowa State and TCU, but not many teams are going to win in those venues anyway. The rundown for Houston is pretty simple. They have the country’s best defense, and it’s not even close.
#2 Texas Tech
While I don’t think Houston is a runaway favorite by any means, they’re the easy choice for number 1 right now. After that it could be any number of teams fighting for number 2. I’ll go with Texas Tech for now. Sitting atop the standings, even over Houston, they’ve had to clutch out quite a few comebacks, but winning close games is a skill, especially in this conference. The Red Raiders got a pretty favorable draw in the new, uneven conference schedule. They only play Houston, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas (at home), and BYU (at home) once each. They’ve taken care of business so far though, so they get the nod here at 2.
#3 Iowa State
Another defensive juggernaut, Iowa State is as good as anyone when they shoot like they did against Kansas. That win will keep them over the Jayhawks for now. The Cyclones remain undefeated at home and have 8 top 10 wins over the last 2 years. Impressive stuff.
#4 Kansas
The preseason favorites haven’t lived up to the hype yet, but the talent might still be there. The offense has looked a lot smoother since inserting freshman Johnny Furphy into the lineup, but the defense needs some work. They also own quite a few good non conference wins. If you think the Jayhawks are too high or too low, we’re about to find out if you’re right, as the schedule heats up in a hurry.
#5 TCU
To reiterate, it’s a bit of a jumbled mess here in the rankings. The Frogs are fresh off a game-of-the-year candidate win over Baylor, so they’ll get the nod over the Bears for now. TCU also beat Houston and nearly won in Allen Fieldhouse as well. Truly have no idea where to put them. Almost all of their conference games have been pretty close, they could go anywhere.
#6 BYU
I originally had BYU tied with Iowa State, since they throttled the Cyclones at home, but I’ve since moved them down a bit. Playing a much different style than Iowa State or the other Cougars, these Cougars shoot and make more 3s than any team in the country. It’s helped them get some love from Kenpom and other metrics and also helped them almost upset Houston at home and Baylor on the road (late free throws distort the score a bit). Easily one of the most fun teams to watch in the Big 12, they might rise later in the year as the remaining schedule isn’t TOO punishing (it’s still the Big 12).
#7 Kansas State
K-State owns a crazy win over Baylor, but other than that nothing really stands out. The upcoming Sunflower Showdown in Manhattan will be telling.
#8 Baylor
None of us would have guessed to find the Bears this low, but I’m a big fan of head-to-head results and two of the teams above Baylor have beaten them (TCU and K-State). While they have beaten BYU who’s above them, the Cougars seem to be playing a bit better at the moment. Every game seems to be a nail-biter with these guys and they really should have more wins than they do. The schedule is absolutely brutal from here on out, but who’s isn’t.
#9 Texas
Back to back wins over Baylor and Oklahoma are keeping the Longhorns afloat after back to back losses to UCF and West Virginia. I know I’m going against head to head putting them under Baylor, but I can’t in good faith put Baylor at 9. Their losses are just so crazy. A Houston win tonight though will vault the Longhorns who knows how high.
#10 Oklahoma
Where in else in America does a ranked team find themselves all the way down at #10 in their conference power rankings. Each year I tell myself the Big 12 can’t get anymore crazy, and then it does. After a great start to the season that found themselves in the AP top 10, the Sooners have since cooled off. They haven’t even looked that bad, but the convincing loss to Texas keeps them down here for now.
#11 Cincinnati
The third of the Big 12 newcomers, I’ve got Cincinnati at 11 due to their head to head win over UCF. They’ve also got a very impressive road win at BYU. The non-con was pretty quiet, but they’ve looked better than most have thought so far in the Big 12.
#12 UCF
Speaking of teams looking better than expected, who would have guessed UCF to beat both Kansas and Texas? Those are two great wins to keep UCF up with the rest of the pack, but their losses to K State and Houston are pretty abysmal. I know Houston has that nation’s best defense and everything, but 7 total field goals is absurd.
#13 West Virginia
Not to be outdone by UCF, the Mountaineers also possess wins over Kansas and Texas. Both were quite shocking though. West Virginia played a decent non conference schedule, but that doesn’t excuse a 7-13 record. When healthy they’re not as bad as said record, but it still hasn’t been pretty in Morgantown this season. I’m interested to see how often the Kansas/Texas team shows up throughout the rest of the year.
#14 Oklahoma State
I know I’m going against my tried and true head to head metric again, and West Virginia probably is a little worse, but I’ve still got Oklahoma State at the bottom for now. The win over West Virginia was nice to get on the win column, but I’m taking WVU’s shock wins against Kansas and Texas over the Cowboys head to head dub against the Mountaineers.