Another big Saturday in Allen Fieldhouse
The Super Bowl is tomorrow, Jason Sudekis is now Sherron Collins, and future aerospace engineer Ellie McCarville is 19,000 dollars richer. It’s certainly quite the weekend, and have we mentioned that there’s a top 15 matchup in Allen Fieldhouse tonight? Scott Drew and the Baylor Bears come into Lawrence looking to make a statement win to continue their winning streak, while Kansas will aim to bounce back from a rough loss but continue their home court momentum. The teams are 4-4 in their last 8 matchups and are 1 (Kansas) and 2 (Baylor) in number of wins since 2011 for Big 12 teams. They split the series last year, including a dominant comeback by Kansas in the most recent game. Both have been a model of consistency for the rest of the country to follow. It seems like it will be a close one, so here’s what to expect from the Bears.
Baylor’s Own Rollercoaster
While many KU fans have described the season as a rollercoaster, the same can be said for Baylor. After starting off conference play 3-0, then losing 3 in a row, the Bears are back in the win column, with another 3 straight wins, including a crazy game over conference contender Iowa State. Almost every game is a nail biter, with the largest margin of victory being 9 so far in the conference. There’s been buzzer beaters, canceled buzzer beaters (sorry Iowa State), and triple overtime. Frankly, it’s hard to tell exactly how good they are with all these close games, but they’re certainly Big 12 contenders and potentially national title contenders if they can get some consistency.
Baylor Offense
For Baylor, the magic starts with their offense, and more specifically, three point shooting. They lead the country shooting 41.2% from deep and hit about 9 of them per game. Despite the roster turnover- losing Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, and Keyonte George-Baylor plays a similar to last year, using elite shooting and guard play to be a top 4 offense in the country (#4 Kenpom this year, #2 last year). And similarly to Cincinnati and Houston, Baylor is a very good rebounding team, grabbing over 34% of their misses, a top 20 mark nationally.
For Kansas, the keys will obviously be to defend the 3 and compete on the glass. While opponent 3 point percentage can often be attributed to luck (read here), the Jayhawks will have to hound and bother the Baylor guards around the perimeter all night. Opponent 3 point shooting has doomed Kansas a few times this season, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against sharpshooting Baylor. While KU looked just fine without McCullar when he was out against Oklahoma State, his defensive presence will be extremely missed if he doesn’t play in this one. On the defensive player of the year watchlist, McCullar’s ability to defend almost every position and lock down the perimeter would help take a lot of pressure off of the rest of the team defensive wise. Without him, KJ Adams would take on a bigger role defending the perimeter, opening things up inside for Baylor. In short, Kansas needs their best defender going up against a great offensive team. Go figure.
Individual Players
Individually, Baylor is led by a dynamic duo of Jakobe Walter and Rayj Dennis. Walter, a projected lottery pick who could go in the top 5, is a great 3 point shooter who can create on his own a bit too, especially with a lethal pump fake. Much like Gradey Dick, Walter is able to constantly move to find good looks, and is great at shooting off the catch. He’s also a good rebounder, as well as a ball handler with only 1 turnover to go with his 30 minutes per game. KU will have to attack him when they have the ball, because as of right now, he is not a good defender 1 on 1. Luckily for him, Kansas doesn’t really have any iso players, and certainly driving to the rim is not a strength of the Jayhawks. But even then, Walter is prone to blow bys and other defensive mistakes that Kansas can exploit. The other factor in Kansas’s favor, is that despite Walter being a great shooter, he has been ice cold in Big 12 play. They certainly can’t leave him open, but he has struggled to find consistency shooting the ball recently.
Dennis, making up the other half of the duo, is the reigning MAC player of the year, having transferred from Toledo last season. The former Rocket hasn’t seen much of a dip playing in a power conference, trailing only Dajuan Harris in terms of assists (6.4) while scoring 13.8 points per game on 49.8% shooting. The Dennis vs Harris matchup today will be absolutely fascinating to watch.
In the front court, Kansas will find in freshman Yves Missi. His 1.7 blocks per game is 2nd in the Big 12, while he also scores in double figures on shooting north of 60%. The Belgian-Cameroonian center has great size, and plays a lot like Udoka Azubuike, getting a lot of shots close to the rim or on lobs. He’s also a decent pick and roll defender and is a major part in Baylor’s offensive rebounding success. He’ll have his hands full guarding Hunter Dickinson, but Dickinson will also have his work cut out for him guarding Missi. Dickinson should win the day, as he plays a lot more minutes, but expect a lot of action when they’re on the floor together.
McCullar and the Bench
As discussed earlier, whether Kevin McCullar will play or not will be a big factor. I think it took a lot of us by surprise when he said he was unsure of his status on Gameday this morning, but it did feel a bit like a bluff of sorts. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t play. He hasn’t shot the ball well lately, but his defense will be needed. Regardless, tonight is as good of a game as ever to get some more production from Elmarko Jackson or Nic Timberlake.
Keys to the Game and Prediction
The keys for a KU win are simple:
- Defend the 3 like never before
- Dickinson needs to win down low, especially vs Missi
I said the Houston game last week would be close and was proven very wrong, very quickly. However, I’ve got the same feeling about this one, but ultimately think it will be a bit too hard for Baylor to win in the Phog.
Prediction: Kansas 80-Baylor 77