Can the Jayhawks steal one on the road?
After a great win on Saturday, Kansas faces a quick turnaround and travels to Lubbock for their third Big Monday game of the season, and looking to get their first meaningful road win (Oklahoma State and Indiana don’t count). The United Supermarkets Arena is one of the loudest in the country, and will be turned up for a top 10 opponent. Despite starting conference play 5-1 and in first place, the Red Raiders have since fallen a bit in the standings, dropping three in a row. before getting a win to get back on track vs UCF on Saturday. And while Texas Tech has become more than a formidable conference foe and top 25 team in recent years, Kansas has won 8 out of the last 10. The Jayhawks will be 3.5 dogs in this one, which feels right until they prove they can win on the road. And perhaps more important than everything just stated, Kevin McCullar will be out tonight against his former team.
Here’s a quick primer on the Red Raiders.
Shooting, Rebounding, & Close Games
Texas Tech has made a living winning close games this year, particularly in comeback fashion. They notched a 17 point comeback win over BYU, to go along with an 11 point comeback against K State, and win over Oklahoma after being down 9 late in the 2nd half. Their Kenpom and Net ranking (metrics that rely on margin of victory) reflect these close games, as they sit at #38 in both, despite being ranked for most of the season. The biggest reason for these clutch performances? Tech shoots free throws at 77.9%, best in the Big 12 and top 20 in the country. Bill Self coached teams are usually great in close games as well, however this year has been more of a mixed bag, especially in the Big 12. The Jayhawks could very well find themselves with a double digit lead at some point, but at no point should feel comfortable going up against the comeback kids.
On the offensive side, pencil in Tech as the BYU/Baylor archetype, although not as extreme. They make 8.7 3s per game, shooting it at 37.5% from deep. Pop Isaacs, Chance McMillian, Warren Washington, and Darrion Williams are all guys that Kansas cannot afford to leave open. Texas Tech is a pretty diverse scoring team in general. They’ve had 7 different guys lead them in scoring in at least 1 game this season. Joe Toussaint is another name to mention. The 5th year 6’0 guard leads the team in assists while also scoring 12.7 points per game. He’s certainly a bit of an x factor, as he’s had plenty of great performances, to go along with a few not-so-great ones.
Where Texas Tech leaves some room for improvement is in their rebounding. They rank all the way down at 307th in defensive rebounding percentage. Kansas is far from a good offensive rebounding team however. It’s improved with Furphy in the lineup, but the absence of McCullar certainly will not help their performance on the glass. It would be a great game for KJ Adams to break out on the rebounding end, which he is certainly capable of if he uses that crazy athleticism. Whichever team improves their poor rebounding will have a big advantage in this one.
Pop Isaacs
Despite the multitude of potential scorers, if there’s one player to slow down, it’s Pop Isaacs. The Big 12’s fifth highest scorer, Isaacs has great IQ and off ball movement to get open, but also facilitates a ton for the Red Raiders. He’s a great driver and can get downhill in a hurry, utilizing a number of creative finishes when he gets to the rim. If you’re curious how Texas Tech was able to accomplish it’s 17 point comeback against BYU, it’s because Pop Isaacs was there. The sophomore is far from a consistent shooter, but hit 6 threes on his way to 32 points against the Cougars. He’s got similar shooting performances on his resume this season, but is also only 3 for his last 12 attempts from deep. He’s an electric player a lot of the time, and will certainly get the USA rocking if he gets going. The Harris vs Isaacs battle should be fun to watch.
Keys and Prediction
Keys for a KU road win
- Defend the 3
- Don’t put Tech at the line
- Timberlake and/or Elmarko production
Kansas will be shorthanded once again, missing a bunch of production from McCullar and one of his potential replacements in Jamari McDowell. Timberlake will get the start again, so maybe this is the game he find his rhythm (you’ve been saying that every game, haven’t you?) He’ll have to provide something if KU wants any chance in this one. They are due for a road win, right? Maybe…
Prediction:
Texas Tech 78 Kansas 74