After a dominant win over Oklahoma State that felt like a pickup game at times, Kansas will get a much tougher test this Saturday, as they welcome the Houston Cougars to Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks will enter as a home underdog for just the 2nd time under Bill Self, and Kenpom, BPI, and probably every metric you could think of agrees. The first time they were a home underdog? A 2021 win over eventual National Champion Baylor. The craziest stat for this one though, is that Bill Self is 13-0 as the lower ranked team in top 10 matchups at the Phog. He’ll need to make that 14-0 Saturday if KU wants a decent shot to win the conference. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if they lost, as I think a lot of us are prepared for not winning the Big 12, but still see a March run as a possibility. However, a win would prove the Big 12 still runs through Lawrence, and put KU back in the driver’s seat despite all the challenges of the past month.
Houston Defense
So with that said, how exactly can the Jayhawks dethrone the current conference leaders? For Houston, it starts, and ends, with their defense. The Cougars have the best defense across every metric, and it’s not even close. If the season ended today, they would have one of the top defenses in Kenpom history. Just 5 teams have cracked 60 points against them all season, and they held UCF to only 7(!) total field goals. But how exactly do they do it?
It all starts with their guards up front. While most teams tend to sag or drop when defending ball screens (to cover the roller), Houston sends both defenders up to blitz and often trap the ball handler. The defense rotates to cover the roller and options on the wings. This puts the ball handler in a high pressure, trap situation, where the only open man is usually in the corner. The ball handler ends up so far from the hoop, that when they finally do find the open man, the Houston defense can recover because the ball travels in the air for so long. They’ll often intercept the pass and when the offense does catch it, the pass is usually inaccurate, throwing the shooter out of balance, rhythm, or their open space. Houston pokes the ball away, steals passes, or at the very least, defends well enough where the offense has to kick it out and reset back at the logo.
So how does a team counter this? Well, there hasn’t exactly been any good examples so far this season. Obviously, KU will want to get out in transition as much as possible to avoid Houston setting up their defense in the first place. When the defense is set up, quick, lateral passes, using patient, smart reads are a good place to start. This is easier said than done, but Houston will want you to do something erratic when faced with their intense pressure. Watching the Cougar defense rotate perfectly is like poetry in motion, but the more they have to do it, the more chances you’ll have of breaking through. Skip passes can work, but that’s also what Houston likes to force, too. Slip screens and ghost screens have proven to be effective as well. Kansas will want to use Houston’s over aggressiveness to see if they can get Johnny Furphy any good looks. I’m interested to see how often he’ll set screens (and pop to the 3) as opposed to Dickinson or Adams.
And speaking of Dickinson, if he can find his 3 point shot again after going cold to knock down 1 or 2, then there’s another way to stretch and confuse the Houston defense, if only for a few plays. How he plays down low will certainly be a deciding factor though. Houston likes to put defenders in front of the center to deny entry passes. Kansas and Dickinson like to do this anyway, because his height allows him to catch the pass despite the defensive fronting. Houston defenders do an excellent job of helping out and recovering after the post catches the ball. In fact, the Houston front court will often just circle around the post up players-denying entry passes, then going back to a more traditional position, then back again to denying the pass. How often Dickinson can get touches down low will probably determine this game.
Houston Offense
As for the Cougar attack, their best offense is often a missed shot. While Cincinnati was touted as an elite offensive rebounding team, Houston cranks it up to 11. They rank 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 40% of their misses. The emergence of Johnny Furphy will help the Jayhawks in the battle on the glass. Dickinson will also have to be especially proactive in going after rebounds and not be too reliant on his height. Overall, the Jayhawks will have to have a “first to the floor” mentality to keep the rebounding battle even remotely close.
Individually, Kansas fans will be familiar with Houston’s leading scorer, LJ Cryer. The Baylor transfer has cooled off a little from 3 this season, but still shoots 38% and remains a player who can score at all 3 levels. The go-to guy for the Cougars though, is Jamal Shead. His average sits at just 12.3 points per game, but he has been absolutely elite in conference play. He plays a bit like NBA star Shai Gilgeous Alexander, getting into the lane, but switching up speed and pace to keep defenders behind him or navigate into open space. The heart of the team, he’s also a creative finisher utilizing floaters or going high off the glass to get a bucket. And rounding out the Cougar guard trio is Sophomore Emanuel Sharp. He’s slowed down a bit in conference play, but certainly remains an x-factor for the Houston offense. If he gets going at the same time as the other two, Houston is probably the most dangerous team in the country.
Keys to the Game and Prediction
The Jayhawks certainly have their work cut out for them, going up against the nation’s best defense and smart, veteran offensive players on the other end. Allen Fieldhouse will be rocking. Here’s what I think KU needs to do to give themselves a chance:
- Creative offensive plays with smart Dajuan Harris passes
- Establish Dickinson early and often
- Get out in transition
- Don’t lose the rebounding battle by TOO much
It’ll almost certainly be a close one, even if KU plays at a high level. I think Bill Self and company will just barely pull it out, putting themselves right back in the Big 12 title race.
The pick: KU 67 Houston 65